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| How Serious is the Threat of a Global Pandemic from Avian Flu? |
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Epidemics are natural to all species. They come in cycles. The human species is overdue for a global pandemic. It may be the Avian flu or it may be some other disease process. Whatever comes - many effective natural strategies exist that all of us can employ to safeguard health. In this two-part series Bryan Flamm discusses the Avian flu and the probabilities of a world wide outbreak. Part two of the series will run in November with specific suggestions on how we can all protect ourselves from virulent flu strains using safe natural methods. Experts at the World Health Organization (WHO) and elsewhere believe that the world is closer now to another influenza pandemic than at any time since 1968, when the last of the previous century’s three pandemics occurred. Pandemics tend to occur every 20-40 years. The WHO has designated six phases for flu pandemics. Presently we are in phase 3 where a new influenza virus subtype is causing disease in humans, but is not yet spreading efficiently among humans. For years, Dr. Robert Webster has been warning of a global flu outbreak. He has been preparing throughout his entire scientific career and works closely with the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta. Dr. Webster’s lab at St. Jude’s Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis is the world’s only laboratory that studies the human to animal influence of influenza. It was Webster who discovered that birds were responsible for past flu pandemics including the one in Asia in 1957 that killed 2 million people.1 Approximately 240 cases of bird flu have been confirmed by the WHO since 2003 with 96 occurring in the first 8 months of 2006. Most of these cases have been in Southeast Asia, primarily in Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam but cases have also been reported in other countries such as Russia, Turkey, Egypt and Greece. Dr. John Bartlett of Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine has stated “this flu is well placed permanently in the bird population….no one thinks we are going to be able to remove it from the bird population. Part of the reason is because these migratory birds—ducks, geese swans, etc. are asymptomatic carriers and fly thousand of miles and honor no borders”1. Two thirds of the 2006 infections have been fatal pointing to the highly virulent nature of this virus known as the H5N1 strain of avian influenza. The 1918 Spanish flu, also an avian flu, had a lower mortality rate yet still killed 675,000 people in the United States. The average age of death was somewhere between 25 and 35 years. That is to say, the elderly fared far better than the young and previously healthy2. How possible is a flu pandemic?
All cases thus far have been direct transmission from birds to humans, and rarely, from one person to another in close family environments. The virus must undergo additional mutations before it can be contagious from person to person. The H5N1 strain has not undergone this mutation to date. It has had several mutations in the animal world where it has passed from ducks to chickens and has learned to infect tigers and other cats, something no avian flu has done before. The virus passed from chickens to humans by direct transmission (close contact) thus causing disease. What the experts fear is the H5N1 virus might exchange DNA with a common human influenza virus. The result could be an airborne strain of flu that would be contagious. Recently the CDC (Centers for Disease Control) attempted to create a contagious strain of bird flu by placing viruses in proximity to each other. Although the experiment failed we cannot predict what may occur in nature. Viruses are masters at mutation creating new strains. That is why each year a new flu vaccines must be created to fit the newest strain. The pattern of spontaneous mutation may ultimately create a bird flu strain that will be contagious. Some say that because the the H5N1 virus that has been around since 1997 and has not learned to go efficiently from person to person it may not be able to do so.1 In this case it will remain endemic to bird populations and cause occasional infection in humans. Defining a Pandemic
There are three required criteria for a pandemic:
Flu Vaccines & Antiviral Pharmaceuticals
Many people mistakenly think that receiving a yearly flu shot will protect them from a flu pandemic- it will not. Many understand that some threat exists and have placed their faith in the government to protect them.3 But vaccines can only be prepared once an epidemic has begun. Preparation of a vaccine is a lengthy process (4-6 months) and this flu could spread around the world before the first vials of vaccine even reach the market. There is no guarantee that a vaccine will even work effectively. The United States has very limited vaccine production capability so in a global pandemic many countries will be competing for limited vaccine supplies. Antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu will have at best questionable results, according to Paul G. Auwaerter, M.D. Uncertainty about dosing and effectiveness in an avian flu strain may render these drugs obsolete.5 Next month: a discussion of the most important nutritional supplements and lifestyle choices that can keep you healthy in a flu pandemic, and why taking too many of certain supplements can over stimulate the immune system and harm your health. Additional information is available at the following websites:
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Articles IMMUNE SYSTEM How Serious is the Threat of a Global Pandemic from Avian Flu? Statements on this page have not been evaluated by the Food & Drug Administration and are not intended to diagnose or treat disease.